CORRELATION BETWEEN TWO METHODS OF BREAST CANCER RISK CALCULATION IN THE POPULATION OF A HIGH RISK SERVICE IN BRAZIL

Tamara Pinto de Oliveira Araujo, Gabriel Yaemon Ikejiri, Patrícia Kajikawa, Natalie Rios Almeida, Nicoli Azevedo Serquiz, Fernanda Madrassi Campora, Renato Zocchio Torresan, Cesar Cabello dos Santos

Institution: CAISM UNICAMP

“Introduction: It is estimated that up till 10% of breast cancer cases are hereditary. Most of the known gene mutation have no evident phenotypic manifestation, not allowing early identification of individuals. For those who don’t accomplish criteria for genetic testing or those who had a negative test, the risk calculation models are very important, providing risk information. There are statistic tools to estimate risk that can really help orientating and conducting the cases in a specific service for high risk women. The most known are Tyrer-Cuzick and Gail models.Objectives: To describe and compare the results of risk calculation obtained by two distinct models on women from a specialized high risk service in CAISM – UNICAMP.Methodology: Transversal analysis of a cohort that includes women in follow-up at a high risk service in CASIM – UNICAMP. Results were described and statistical analysis was based on the correlation by the Spearman coefficient. Results: Median age was 41,7 years and 79,6% of patients had a first degree family history of one or more relatives with breast cancer. The medium vital risk for breast cancer calculated by Gail method was 20,4%, and by Tyrer-Cuzick 29,9%. The medium risk in 5 years by Gail method was 2,7% and in 10 years by Tyrer-Cuzick was 6,0%. The correlation between both methods was low, with a Spearman coefficient of 0,44116 (p=0,0005).Conclusion: Both risk calculation methods had very discrepant values in our population, suggesting a possible overestimation by the Tyrer-Cuzick method and/or underestimation by the Gail method.

Key words: high risk, breast cancer, risk calculation”